Few tips on using our Reports from KeyPony.Com

Taking Advantage of Track Bias

Does your monster speed horse need a tow truck to finish the race?
Did a 15-1 shot who has shown to cough his lungs out after the half just got transformed to an Energizer bunny?
Do you see good jockeys switch lane for no reason?

Track surfaces are in constant change, and a horse player should take advantage of the changes.
With the right data any horse player can spot these biases after a few races has run on the track. That's why it's so important to not just see the races run but watch how they run. It would be a suicide to wager a sustain runner that you ranked as equal to a front runner to rally on a speed favoring track.

How do we do this?
Well, by looking at the horses' running styles and the pace figures. (Sty,Q,EP,TSP,LP)
Visualize the running of the race. Watch a couple of horses with a predictable running style (front runner/late runner), and see if they do as good as the pace numbers indicate.
This should be done for each surface (Dirt-Turf) and different distances (Sprints and Routes). Remember that we are not to make a rocket science project out of this, but just see if a noticeable bias exist.

But do you have to just sit and watch the first few races? The answer is "no", some of the best wagering opportunities are early in the day. Other handicappers who did not bother to make a note of races from previous day will be offering their money to you who did the homework.

But what if you were not at the races yesterday either?
Only a few people take advantage of detail result charts that are freely available online, and they will give you all the information you need to have an idea of what to expect. True that there will be changes overnight, but any information is better than none when starting the day. You can expect to be close if there were no big changes in the weather or the track maintenance. (Some tracks even post the daily changes done by the track crew online)
Also, most major tracks offer archives of the races online, and previous day's race replays at the track. These are tools that can make a difference in your handicapping process.

Equibase has one of the best result charts online. I will cover the result charts and how to analyze them later. For a general idea of how each track is running, try the "at a glance" section of "Handicapper's Edge" free daily newsletter from BRIS.

Remember, you are just trying to see if there was a noticeable bias. So, if you can't see it, don't assume one either way. Plenty other ways to gain advantage.

Good luck at the races.

A quick and dirty KEY horse

Have you seen a lone speed horse beat a field of late runners gate to wire, or a late runner rally to beat the exhausted dueling front runners?

It's always worth a second look at the running style of your top contenders (We try our top 4), specially the Quirin speed points (Like to see 3+ points difference). What you are looking for is one horse that has a style that is different from your other top contenders (E7,E/P5,P4,S1). This angle will produce some nice payoffs when the key horses have value odds.Key horse selection combined with track bias consideration should determine how strong of a play or a no bet. If you are not sure about how to look for a track bias, you can take a look at "Taking Advantage of Track Bias" article for a few hints.

This scenario does not happen clearly too often on a race day, but the running styles and the race matchups are mostly the reason why the best horses do not win as often as they should.Remember, if you can't see it, don't assume one either way. Plenty other ways to gain advantage.

Good luck at the races.

Few thoughts on sprints

Let's start with some stats on sprint races.

Over 75% of 6 F dirt races are won by horses that are ranked 1st-3rd at the 2nd call (EP+TSP).
Over 78% of 5.5F dirt races are won by horses that are ranked 1st-3rd at the 2nd call (EP+TSP).
Over 84% of 5 F dirt races are won by horses that are ranked 1st-3rd at the 2nd call (EP+TSP).

These are averages for all classes on a fast track.
(Percentages are slightly higher for higher class races. Turf races are at about 10% lower)

You don't need to have our pace figures to determine who will be in the lead (or 2nd-3rd) at the 2nd call, to take advantage of these stats. Just determine the horses' running style and fractions from the past performance lines, and you have reduced the number of horses with a high chance of winning to just three for more than 75% of the time. Now simply choose the best of the three for your KEY horse.

Another point worth mentioning here is that, this angle holds true for maiden route races too.
Over 72% of Maiden route races on dirt are won by horses that are ranked 1st-3rd at the 2nd call.
And, less than 5% of maiden route races are won by first time starters.

As you can see these stats could be extremely helpful in either WIN or EXOTIC wagers, And could be even more profitable when combined with other factors for a more balanced wager. (Unit Wagering)

Remember, if you can't see it, don't assume one. Plenty other ways to gain advantage.

Good luck at the races.