In this article, we cover how to spot a horse that has an early pace advantage over the field. These horses may steal the race on the front or set a very comfortable pace and have plenty left in the tank to hold off any challengers late in the race. If you generate your own pace figures and pacelines, you need to determine what would be considered a pace advantage for your figures. What we cover here is for using our pace figures and rankings.
First lets take a look at our pace numbers. We generate pace numbers for all horses' previous starts. Then we predict how the pace may set up for these particular group of horses. Then we select a pace line from past performance lines that match this pace.
Every race is divided into three segments.
EP (Early Pace) is the horse's speed from gate to the first call. First call is 2 Furlong call in sprints and 4 Furlong call in routes.
TSP (Turn Speed) is the horse's speed from the first call to the second call which is the 4 Furlong mark in sprints and 6 Furlong in routes.
LP (Late Pace) is the horse's speed from the second call to the finish. Late pace is not as important here with what we are trying to spot.
Spotting early pace advantage horses is very easy. We consider any horse with a 2 point advantage in each of our first two pace figures (EP-TSP) to be at an early pace advantage over the field. Scanning a card will take only seconds and when you spot a live one, you'll have a good chance at a nice payoff.
It is easy to spot these horses but there are a few things to consider.
We are looking for the ONLY horse in the field. If two or more horses have the same figures, this is a disadvantage to these horses as they will hook each other and finish badly.
Who is considered a play? We are not looking for a favorite nor a bomb. The mid-range odd horses are the most profitable horses to play. We only consider 4/1 to 10/1 morning line horses that are ranked in our top five selections. You will catch a 20/1 take the race gate to wire on a speed bias track every once in a while but to play these, first look at our bias report for that track.
Horses with recent form. As with any pace or speed figures, horses coming off a layoff may or may not perform to their figures. Recent form is more important in lower class and becomes less important as we go up in the ranks. In our reports DB (Days Back to last race) shows the layoff. We need to see a race in the past 30 days for a low level claimer but don't care about a 90 day layoff for a stake horse. We can't cover layoff for every class and every track here. You just need to use the level you are comfortable with in considsering if a horse is sharp or rusty.
Races with inexperience horses. These usually maiden races may have a few first timers or/and a few with one or two starts. These horses and connections are still trying to figure out a comfortable running style and we have to look at the pace figures with caution.
Good Luck at the races.