Horse Racing Selections and Handicapping Reports
This article covers maiden races on the dirt or all-weather surfaces.
We already covered the non-playable maiden races when it comes to too many first-timers or too many professional losers in a maiden race. First one does not need an explanation and is easy to spot. Second one is a little harder to determine. I personally use the finishing order in the comment lines. If I see a bunch of 6 of 9, 7 of 11, 4 of 6, .... finishes, I do not consider this race a good race for vertical plays and try to use this to my advantage in horizontal plays. Vertical plays in this race may be good candidates for boxcar payoffs but these big payoffs don't impress me since I keep records of my losing tickets.
When there is a good maiden claiming race, there are important factors we use to narrow down the top contenders. Remember that we are trying to find that ONE key horse in the race and some races are just too competitive to do this.
Our top factor in a maiden claiming race is our recent pace figure (less than 42 days layoff) compared to pace par for the race. Next important factor is our class figure. The reason we compare the pace numbers to pace par is to determine the strength of the field and confidence level in our selection. If a race has a par of 82 and the pace numbers are in low 70's, we give a little more importance to class figures. If the race par is 78 and our key selection has a pace of 82, we play the horse a lot heavier in the WIN hole of exotics.
Now let's look at a few examples.
In this race, we notice that the top horse has an 84 pace rating that is well above the rest of the field and also is above the pace par which makes the horse a stronger win candidate than a win and place when it comes to exotics. We'll play this horse on top of our vertical plays and singled in horizontal plays.
In this race, the top three have superior class ratings compared to the rest of the field with top pick having the highest class. Looking at the pace figures confirm this horse as the strong top key in this race and is played in both horizontal and vertical plays.
|Figure handicapping drawbacks|