Using pace figures
To find value in pace handicapping, we need to look at the total picture. Identify the early pace which shapes the outcome of most races. The lower the class of a field, the more early pace will effect the results.
Running style basics:
Horses have a comfort zone when it comes to pace and positioning during a race.
E (early) style horses need to be on the front side of the pack to perform their best. The higher the Q (Quirin speed points), the higher the need to lead. An E8 horse has to have the lead or will not perform to it's best.
P (pressers) need to be close to the lead for best performance (within 3-5 length). Pressers with too low of EP figure compare to the front runner's EP, will have to spend extra energy to keep up during the first part of the race and left with too little in the tank for the last part of the race.
S (sustained) runners need a fast pace to run at. This group are the most disadvantaged among the other styles and do not win their share of the races. A late runner, not only has to hope for a speed duel, but a lucky break when it comes to a clean trip. So many of these horses get the fast pace to end up blocked behind tiring front runners.
E/P (early presser) horses like to be very close to the lead but seldom take the lead (within 2 length). They force "need to lead horses" to spend more early energy than they might have to otherwise.
Pace handicapping guidelines:
1- Races shorter than 6 furlongs or longer than mile and a quarter are not good candidates for pace handicapping. They become full speed ahead or a jockey's race.
2- It only works with playable races. Common sense handicapping will tell us if race is a candidate for pace handicapping or not.
Maiden races with first timers are among the most unpredictable races. Not only we do not have any idea as how the first timers will effect the pace, the other runners are usually too inexperienced to have found their comfort zone.
Same as young maiden races, old and tired claimers will usually leave you scratching your head as how the race is running.
3- Off tracks, dirt or turf, will cause some horses not to run to their normal style. If it's not Fast or Firm (or something I consider close to it), I will not use pace handicapping as my top handicapping tool.
Most important factors in pace handicapping:
1- Early Pace (EP figure) - Probably the most important.
2- Turn Speed (TSP figure) - Will tell us how far a horse will carry that early speed.
3- Late Pace (LP figure) - How we gauge late runners. (mainly)
4- Pace (total pace figure) - Simply, the size of energy tank on a horse. Calculated from EP, TSP and LP figures.
5- Class (CLS figure) - Used to determine the winner of a speed duel.
6- Form (FM figure) and layoff days (DB figure) - Negative form or long layoff horses will not survive a hot pace race. Hardly played to win or place unless with a very apparent early lead (rare).
To find contenders we have to find pacesetters.
Looking at running Style and Quirin speed points, we look for the E style horses (not E/P if possible), then the Highest EP among these E runners. The total pace figure of pace setter is what we compare the rest of the field to. Here are a few simple examples of picking pacesetters of the race.
P DB Sty Q EP TSP LP PACE CLS FM
4 150 E/P 0 92 90 38 73 73 2
5 28 P 2 90 92 81 88 100 0
2 37 E 5 91 92 81 88 80 2
6 22 E/P 4 88 85 75 83 87 2
1 29 S 1 76 77 87 80 79 1
3 34 S 0 68 75 84 76 69 2 |
In this race, #2 will be in the lead, #4 & #6 right next to him, #5 behind the three. Not much difference in CLASS between the front runners to effect #2. #2 has an 88 pace which is the highest in the field. None except #5 has a pace close to that to be part of the pace late in the race. #4 may look like the best horse in the field but if pace handicapping, #2 & #5 are the only win contenders. |
P DB Sty Q EP TSP LP PACE CLS FM
6 42 S 0 70 80 71 78 90 0
5 15 P 3 76 76 78 76 69 2
4 26 S 3 68 66 76 68 97 1
2 411 P 3 76 71 63 69 75 2
8 183 P 6 88 85 70 82 83 2
1 35 S 0 68 78 86 80 69 0
7 21 P 2 66 71 76 72 69 2
3 330 S 5 74 67 59 65 60 0 |
No Early or Early Presser runners. This will be a very slow race and total pace figure will be the main deciding factor. #8 - #1 - #6 and #5 are win contenders. (#8 has been off more than 6 months but it's in good form)
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P DB Sty Q EP TSP LP PACE CLS FM
3 26 E/P 6 94 96 78 89 93 2
1 12 E/P 6 92 92 78 87 88 1
7 21 S 0 84 86 98 89 97 0
9 21 P 0 88 92 80 87 60 2
5 21 S 1 64 66 56 62 61 1
2 26 E/P 4 88 84 73 82 72 3
4 21 P 1 89 96 86 90 80 -1
8 13 E 7 91 96 84 90 92 0
6 21 E 5 88 86 79 84 75 2 |
Here is the opposite, two Early horses fighting for the lead with three Early Pressers pushing that pace. As far as Early horses, #6 does not have enough class to hang with #8. #8's pace number (90) becomes our pace figure for comparison. Too much early competition equals tired front runners late in the race. #5 is flat too slow (62 pace) to catch the front runners. #2 and #9 have marginal pace numbers (82 and 87) but not enough class to take over late. #4 has the pace number (90) but low class figure and negative form makes that horse a non-contender. So far we have eliminated #2, #4, #5, #9 and #6. Can #8 go gate to wire? It's unlikely since his total pace number is not superior to the rest of contenders to overcome that early pressure fatigue. Sustain runner #7 becomes the top contender for win with pace and class figures close or better than the rest (#3 - #1 - #8). |
P DB Sty Q EP TSP LP PACE CLS FM
1 49 E 8 95 99 80 94 100 2
7 25 S 1 70 66 85 71 81 0
2 14 S 2 64 68 80 71 85 0
6 22 E 7 79 78 65 75 83 0
5 22 S 2 63 64 76 67 83 0
3 25 S 0 84 84 86 84 65 0
4 215 P 3 76 76 74 76 60 1 |
Here is a race that does not need much analysis to find the only win candidate. Should be an easy gate to wire victory for #1. |
Using Class and Form figures:
A horse with negative form figure or much lower class figure will drop out of a speed duel first.
Comparable horses in pace, class and good form, usually will run each other down out of the money when in speed duel.
Low class horses in good form and only early speed of the field normally beat much higher class horses going gate to wire.
Lower class horses with late speed, normally won't go by higher class slower horses down the stretch.
More things to consider:
Almost every horse in the field can effect the way a race shapes. Check your picks after scratches if you handicapped the race early.
Trainers and jockeys do try different tactics with inexperience and maiden horses.
Front running horses win almost twice their share of the races and even higher share in the slop.
Sustained runners are exact opposite, they win less than half their share of the races.
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